Week 8 There are two components in every game of football: your team and the opposing team. Going into each game you can compare what you're bringing to the party against your opponent and have a pretty good idea of what the outcome should be. Obviously, wild card factors such as penalties, week 1, injuries, fumbles and the like some into play regularly enough that they should not be discounted, but they hit every team with sufficient frequency that it balances out. Eventually.
With this magnificent truth in mind, this season's midterm report looks at the strength in opposition each time can expect and whether or not they've had it easy so far. With the race to the playoffs halfway run mathematically nobody is out of the running, but we all know that's not true, don't we?
Today's order of teams is dictated by their remaining strength of schedule - to put it a different way, who has the biggest cupcake of a season still to play, and will it make a difference?
--- Easy life ---Star City Slamhounds (0.359)The Slamhounds have a division-leading 5 win record at the halfway stage. The rest of Bad Company East have a combined total of 2 wins. Two. Wins. Two. Now, the Slamhounds just got a rolled up newspaper to the nose from the mirthless North Stars and they've lost a close one to the Raptors and a weird blowout to the Prodigies in the season before but they're clearly good enough to have earned their 5-3 record in Electrosports' gentlest division. A 10 or maybe 11 win season looks probable, maybe even more but it'll depend on whether the Fools and Echidnas in the last two weeks of the season bring their A-game... and whether the Hounds can avoid another Prodigy-style slip up.
Maastricht Violent Vermin (0.375)The Vermin have a winnable schedule ahead of them and could be on the cusp of a second half comeback... just kidding. Their single win this season came from the generosity of the Crazy Wolves combined with week 1. A 1-15 finish? Probably not. Let's say they get a coin-flip win against the War Elephants but that's about it. My crystal ball says the Crazy Wolves win in week 16.
Florence Fools (0.391)The Fools have the lead in the other hard-luck division in the league, but they're only ahead of the Wildcats by a single game, and only 2 wins in front of both the Corpses and Lions. They do have the easiest schedule of their divisional opponents, but only because of their own win/loss rate. Week 15 looks pretty enticing for viewers with a game against the Slamhounds, while week 16 will probably be a loss to erratic-but-skilled Philly, that leaves 6 games. Two against the Wildcats, once each against the Lions and Corpses... those are the three that matter. So, Fools take the division? Wildcats. They're the deciding factor, but I think, yes. The Fools get the wreath this year.
Debt-Laden Corpses (0.391)Either next season or the season after the Corpses will run the show in Fail Brigade West. Unless, collectively, we opt to strip them of 50% of their picks in the coming draft and distribute them to the owners with the worst records since the start of this league iteration (yes, I'm considering this) even with the AI autodrafting they're going to be an unstoppable machine. Put a halfway decent owner in charge in a season's time and they'll be in the bowl in 4-5 years. This year, they're good enough to be an upset specialist. They've scalped the Lions twice and narrowly beat the Elephants, and they could land another 3-4 wins this year easily. As long as the Fools keep their game strong this will be a meaningless number of wins... but what if they don't? It's not inconceivable that the Corpses win 8 this year, and in FB West that could be enough to take the division.
Wausau War Elephants (0.406)The mighty Elephants of War have a win over Sumpan this year. Their one win against a team with no wins. That's not ideal, but then the War Elephants are in a rebuilding phase, and that's always important to consider. Every team is at a different stage of development, some in decline, some approaching peak, some there right now. A skilled owner can preserve their peak for many seasons, while those who struggle to reach the lofty heights of a conference championship may never have a notably strong dynasty. Which way will the Elephants stampede? Time will tell. This season, however is not likely to be showered in glory. Their schedule to date has been weak, and their schedule to come is weaker. There are a couple of wins in the offing from Sumpan, Maastricht twice, potentially the Prodigies and/or Lengths. Those are doubtful however, but even then the Elephants are likely to finish with a 3-13 record by my reckoning.
Sumpan Crazy Wolves (0.406)The Wolves aren't having a banner season. They've shown they can score, sometimes, but their defense is an open door and that's going to be their downfall for a while to come. This is what we in the trade call a start-from-scratch situation. The team's two best, young players, inexplicably are MLBs. Both of them. Pro-tip... move Maddox to WLB and enjoy the interceptions, they'll win you at least one game potentially more. As for this season, well I suspect there will be a win or two to come and I could see an upset being possible, the Prodigies if I had to guess. Anyway, first pick in the draft is likely... so do you keep hold of it, or turn it into 2R1s and 2R2s in coming seasons? Someone will pay that. Just putting it out there.
Batman Robins (0.438)Oh hello! We're looking at a challenger with a friendly schedule still to play. They trail the Raptors by just one game and just knocked off Philly. Their other wins (that count, week 1 doesn't... you know that) have come against weak opponents and they were blown out by the Raptors in week 2. Batman are going to be left with a positive record, and maybe a playoff berth, knocking out a bigshot from BC South in the process. So, 5 wins then? Four and an upset. That's what it'll take. Anarchy, Rampage, Anarchy again, Earthquake... they're almost gimmes. The 5th coming from the Screamers? No. Soneros? LOL. Baguettes? Nuh-uh. Raptors in week 16? Could be! The Robins have some roster shortcomings to attend to, but they're not out of the running.
Zena Soneros (0.438)This is your "the defending champions have a pretty easy run to the end of the season" calendar notification. They've already played Paris, Stockholm, Montevideo, Forbidden City and Ulaanbaatar. They've got rematches against Stockholm and Montevideo to play again but there aren't any other opponents in the same class in the rest of the schedule. Even if both challenging games end up as losses Zena finish the year with a 12 win record. Time to start figuring out how to either beat them in the playoffs, or nobble their best players folks. A bowl repeat is very possible.
Penrith Lions (0.438)The Lions are in the basement of Fail Brigade West while simultaneously being two games out of first. The division is that tight. They also have plenty of opportunities to win in games to come, in fact, looking at it now it could be that every team in the West finishes with an 8-8 record. Definitely not outside the realm of possibility. The Lions are rebuilding so there's zero pressure on them except that which they apply to themselves, but let's look at who they have to come. Vermin? Yes, they should win that one, as well as the Crazy Wolves. They've the Fools at home, that could be a win and the Wildcats? Definitely plausible. Realistically? 6 or 7 wins for the season.
Heliopolis Phoenix (0.453)The defending Fail Brigade East champions haven't looked quite as capable this year. They've dropped clangers against the Lions and Fools, grabbed a cheeky week 1 win against the Echidnas and roll into midseason with a .500 record. Only one game away from the divisional lead but do they have the wins to come? The two rematches against their divisional rivals will be the decider. Heliopolis won both the openers here, and won them comfortably enough. They also have an easier schedule to contend with. Two very winnable games against the Silverbacks, the Corpses, Prodigies, Lengths, a 10 win record is possible, but it'll be close-run all the way. Phoenix, despite lying in third, are in the driving seat for their own destiny here.
Reasonable Lengths (0.469)Ooooh that loss to the Prodigies. That. Right there. That's the questionmark over the Lengths played out in one game. Losing to the Echidnas, Slamhounds and Derry, that's fine for almost anyone who aren't in the top tier. But the Prodigies. Yes, they have a quality offense when it fires on all cylinders, but they're a hit or miss team - much like the Lengths. So, what's still to come? Probable wins against the Silverbacks and War Elephants. Possible wins against the Prodigies, Phoenix and Rhinos? That would give them a 9-7 record, but it's not going to happen, and that's okay. There's still work to be done at the Lengths - not least of all tracking down a franchise QB - before they are going to contend. Actually record this year? Another 3 wins. 7-9 final.
Nottingham Arrows (0.469)The Arrows are tied for first in Fail Brigade East and they haven't had the toughest schedule so far, except that they've won games you'd expect they'd lose. The win over Ovideo sticks out immediately as an indicator that maybe Nottingham have something going on, but then they lose to Phoenix and Harnosand. Not that their divisional rivals are bad teams, more that this makes the battle for the East all the more tooth and nail. So, who's in between the Arrows and some silverwear? Rematches against the divisonal rivals, good stuff to be had there. A double-header against the Silverbacks will be wins, so it's the head to heads, Prodigies and Corpses standing in the way. That said, I can see a cheeky upset against Echunga or Derry sneaking in, as well as a surprise defeat. Week 16 is my guess there. So, I reckon 10 wins this year. Yep.
Los Angeles Earthquake (0.469)Los Angeles are 1-7. Fine, they're rebuilding and they're in a tough division. They're obviously not... oh, hang on. HAVE YOU SEEN THEIR ROSTER? What the **** is going on with the Earthquake? Why can't they put a winning scheme together? They have the talent but they haven't turned an offensive powerhouse into a team that scores. Now, their schedule so far has been capital T, Tough. Philly, Dragons, Paris, Raptors, Kings, Baguettes and Arrows. Every team has a winning record, apart from Nice. Life gets easier in the second half of the year but they've got too big a mountain to climb to challenge for the division despite having a team that should be playoff-bound. Maybe a win against Nice, maybe one against Philly, maybe one against the Kings, but almost certain wins against Porth Emmett, Oviedo, Grand Rapids, Edlington, possibly also Batman. There's every chance LA go 8 for 8 in the second half of the year.
North York Wildcats (0.469)A new owner in North York and they've made a decent fist of the season so far. Sure, they've had an easy schedule to now, generously giving the Silverbacks a win along the way and haven't tested their mettle against a quality side. But, that all changes in the games to come! Oh wait, no it doesn't. They have the Fools, who are doing alright but have a record that's a reflection of their schedule, the Slamhounds who are doing alright but have a reflection... you get the picture. The strongest team they still have to play is the Kings and that won't happen until week 16, which could prove to be make or break. This is probably the toughest schedule to call. The Wildcats are 4-4 and apart from the Crazy Wolves and the Kings, every opponent has either 3 or 5 wins. 1-7? 7-1? Both are just as possible, so more likely is that it'll be somewhere in between. They might win the division, they might not. I just can't tell! What a fascinating situation.
Grand Rapids Rampage (0.484)What do you call a team with a caretaker that beats the Kings and Philly but loses to Edlington and the Lengths? A wildcard, that's what. Anyway, they're ownerless and won't act in any way other than as a potential tripwire for their upcoming opponents, so let's move on.
Echunga Echidnas (0.484)The Echidnas won their division in 3 out of the 4 seasons so far, that they finished behind Derry last season isn't sign of an end of their peak, more than they now have a stronger battle on their hands. At the halfway point they're tied up with Derry although they lost the home leg of the two team's head to head. That being the only loss in their 6-1 record. The only quality side they've beaten so far is the former bowl-winning Montevideo, who have a mammoth schedule to contend with and are sitting on 4-4. The second half of the year looks pretty easy for the Echidnas with only the Derry rematch and maybe the Arrows or Slamhounds getting in the way of a finish in the teens. The strong likelihood is that Echunga finish with a minimum of 12 wins, probably 13 and yomp into the playoffs with a winnable first-round game.
Nice Baguettes (0.484)The Baguettes came into the year the clear favourite to retain the FB South title but it's been a bumpy ride to the 4-4 record they have at this point, and because of the divisional matchups this season it isn't going to get much easier. It is however, a little easier. Having lost the double against Philly - yes, week 1 doesn't count, but they also lost the home rematch, but beaten both the Kings and Earthquake in part 1 the Baguettes now need wins. They're 2 games out of first but have 6 near-certain victories to come if they can keep their one offensive weapon on the field. Yes, Lepain is currently out on a questionable, but he may be called into service before being fully fit in 2 games' time. Nice will be confident of wins over Los Angelens and Edlington, but will want Route 1 to be in business for their rematch against the Kings. If they win that game, they'll likely finish ahead of Hong Kong. If they don't, then they won't be retaining the title. Beyond that are the Dragons who, for as much as they're undefeated right now do not look invinceable. So what will the Baguettes get from here? Somewhere in the region of 6-8 wins is likely. If they were going to trip up it'll be either Batman or Oviedo holding the knife. The Kings are the team they must beat because the division title depends on it. Stick week 11 in your calendar.
Dutch Prodigies (0.500)A great offense with a caretaker at the wheel. The Prodigies are a team who are very capable of running up a big score. Once they've an owner we could see them doing so regularly. Anyway, the one interesting thing to report is that the Prodigies' schedule ahead of them is against teams who, collectively have won and lost the same number of games. Fascinating.
Ulaanbaatar Raptors (0.531)A 6-1 record at the mid-point and the Raptors should be rightfully happy. Or rather, they would be, if they hadn't just taken a pasting at the hands of Zena. They've also just finished the easier portion of their season, although there isn't much in it. The Raptors "don't fancy that much" selection of opponents includes Derry, Montevideo, Stockholm and Philly, none of which will be anything other than major achievements if the boys from Ulaanbaatar can come away with wins. Their remaining opponents are a little easier, but Cape Town and Batman aren't to be taken lightly. The Raptors will need every one of their 6 wins they've gained so far if they're to guarantee a playoff place. Batman controls their destiny, having a far easier second half schedule. This makes the week 16 head to head all the more important. If they can win 5 of their last 8, the Raptors win the division. Win 4, and they probably win it. Anything less and they risk not only the title, but also the playoffs.
Edlington Anarchy (0.547)A brand new owner in Edlington, and something of a trial by fire for them in a season where not only do they have nothing to lose, but also little to gain. Weeks 15 and 16 look like their best opportunities for wins, but the game against Batman offers a possibility of a result. Not that results will count for much this year. This is a team with plenty of potential to improve.
Stockholm North Stars (0.547)So, you've a 6-2 record. How do we evaluate the condition the team is in? We look at the two losses. The North Stars' lost against Paris in week 2 (in overtime...) and Zena in week 4. Two of the toughest teams in Electrosports. They've knocked off Derry, Star City and Montevideo so far, establishing them as formidable, but we already knew that. So, who's still to face? The Raptors, Screamers, Soneros and Dragons. That's if you discount the Rhinos from consideration. They're in the calendar twice. I wouldn't choose to discount them, but their record suggests they're off the boil right now. A 10+ win season looks certain for Stockholm - who've never finished with less than 11 wins.
Derry Mean Machine (0.547)Derry are tied with Echunga for the lead of Bad Company West, but Echunga are the only good team they've beaten. All their other victories have come from strugglers. Well, it's time to put on the big boy pants for the second half of the year. No, there are no goliaths in the mix other than the Echunga rematch, and the Raptors look pretty handy this season. Beyond that and it's the tooth and nail fight that is Fail Brigade East and a gift from the War Elephants in week 16. So, are Derry a big gun or not this season? They're looking to follow up last year's division win with more of the same, and they've forgiving-enough of a schedule that it's possible, but Echunga have the easier run. Completing a sweep of FB East would near-guarantee a playoff spot, but it's quite likely that an 11 win team will miss out on the playoffs this year from Bad Company.
Harnosand Harbourmasters (0.547)More excitement from the division of ultimate tension. The Harbourmasters are in the top spot and chasing the very real promise of their first winning season if they can hold it together. Their first winning season and the division title? Such dreams! The upcoming schedule is against them pulling this off but it's not an unreasonable dream. Derry, Hong Kong and Echunga are in the way, a road game against Bwindi a relatively easy match. That leaves the Lengths, Heliopolis, Nottingham and the Lions. Those will be close games. Can the Harbourmasters cause an upset? Certainly. Both Derry and Hong Kong look the most vulnerable on that front, but it is those evenly-matched opponents that'll decide the season. Personally, I think Harnosand go 4-4 in the second half of the year which could be just-enough to win the division if they completed the double over Nottingham and get revenge against Heliopolis.
Cheesy Philly (0.547)The tug of war between Philly and Hong Kong for leadership of Bad Company South has pulled back toward the Kings at the mid-season point, and Nice are a threat in third place right now. After a spectacular 5 game winning stream that included the double over Nice, Philly have slumped to a 3 game losing streak instigated by the Dragons. The next two games are absolutely critical to Philly's season, first is the Kings - that won't need any explanation - then is Paris. Not that Philly should be able to beat Paris, but the French are a team who Philly need to be able to beat if they have aspirations beyond a playoff qualification. After these two crunch games are 2 weeks off against Los Angeles and Edlington, then back on the gas for the Raptors before heading into the last 2 weeks facing Hong Kong on the road, then Florence at home. If Philly go 4-4 in the second half of the year they miss out, even if they beat the Kings twice, because the Baguettes will pounce as they have the easiest schedule of FB South's top 3. I can see a 5 or 6 win run to round off the year. At least one win over the Kings then victories over LA, Edlington, Florence and Porth Emmett. It'll be the Raptors game. That's the one that'll dictate who wins FB South.
Porth Emmett Auctioneers (0.563)This is not the Auctioneers' season. They banked a lot on early results at the foundation draft and while their record has been solid and included a playoff run, they lacked the younger, upcoming talent needed to keep them in contention. A bold plan that didn't come good. So, we're looking at two wins so far, will there be any more? One, maybe two. Ooof. That really isn't appealing, but then we're into the toughest end of the stick when it comes to the remaining schedules. Paris twice, the Soneros, Screamers, Philly, 4 teams going to the playoffs with somewhat near certainty. The Tardigrados won't be easy, neither will the Rhinos and that leaves just LA with a losing record to possibly offer a ran of sunshine in Porth Emmett. Next year? Doesn't look good either. Hold the line, it's rebuilding time.
Bwindi Silverbacks (0.563)I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but that 1 win achieved by Bwindi isn't likely to be expanded upon in the second half of the year. Yes, the Silverbacks have announced rebuilding before the start of this year, but even then a positive result or two would be welcome. So, maybe the Corpses? The Silverbacks can score so they may present a surprise result for one of their opponents, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Cape Town Rhinos (0.578)There's no good news to be had in Cape Town. They roll into midseason with 3 wins to their name and their schedule gets tougher from here on in. North Stars twice, Screamers, Soneros, Raptors, these are high-performing teams who won't readily give up a result - not that the Rhinos are in a position for a late-in-the-day charge for glory this year. They might double their win tally however. Porth Emmett and Grand Rapids are certainly vulnerable and the Lengths have a record that flatters them a little. I think there might be a surprise result in the offing somewhere. Maybe one of the North Star games, maybe the Raptors? Could be.
Les Republicains de Paris (0.578)This is the best team in Fail Brigade if lifetime performance is your measuring stick. They've won the conference 3 times in 4 seasons, no matter how you look at it, they're the powerhouse in the conference. One loss so fare and it's come from former bowl champion Montevideo (ably demonstrating life in the old Screamer yet). More importantly, the Republicains have beaten the best that Bad Company has to offer this season - both Zena and Stockholm have fallen to Paris. So, start the coronation now? No sir. The second half of the season has some properly juicy games in it. Forget about Philly and Hong Kong, there's a double-bill against the as-yet undefeated Dragons in the offing. Big games. The biggest of the year in Fail Brigade. 13 wins this season as a minimum for Paris unless they suffer a catastrophic injury, 15 is doable, maybe even likely.
Hong Kong Kings (0.609)That loss against Grand Rapids in week 4 is probably going to cost the Kings their first division title. The other loss against Nice all but guarantees it. The remaining games for Hong Kong make for furrowed brows for those who expected the team to take the FB South title this year. Two games against flighty Philly to come, the rematch against Nice, taking on the conference's powerhouses of Paris and Forbidden City, that could easily represent 5 losses right there. What remains aren't pushovers either - Los Angeles, Harnosand, North York, all teams who could throw a streak off its track. The Kings lead the division right now, but they're going to have to beat Philly and Nice if they want to stay up front. Probable losses against Paris and the Dragons (although a Dragons/Kings game is always a gem of unexpected drama) mean that those edge-case games will also be critical.
Montevideo Screamers (0.609)If the Screamers hasn't just comfortably beatem Paris you'd write them off this season. Other than the narrow week 3 loss to Ovideo, their other losses have come from Echidna, Zena and Stockholm. Yes, friends, you've had it easy. Still to come are the North Stars again, Soneros again, Dragons and Raptors. Then there's Cape Town, Batman and the "we already beat the Kings, who's next" Rampage. The only week that looks like a sure thing is week 15 in Porth Emmett, but as things stand unless the Screamers can recover their bowl-winning form they may miss out on the playoffs entirely. That'll be the first time in this league that's happened.
Forbidden City Dragons (0.625)Best record in the league and second toughest schedule still to play. The schedule is that tough because they have their divisional rivals in chief twice in the calendar. They're also due to face Hong Kong and a critical week 16 tilt against the North Stars. Then there's Montevideo and Nice. The only two weeks that look anything like being a break from this onslaught are against Oviedo twice. Oviedo have the ability to beat anyone with a little dash of luck, so the undefeated Dragons swoop into the final stretch of the year with nothing looking certain. They'll finish with 12+ wins or I'll eat my hat and they'll be in the running come the playoffs. Whether that will be with a bye week in hand or not will be decided in week 15.
Ovideo Tardigrados (0.672)You've beaten the Screamers this season yet only have 3 wins. Okay. A fluke? I don't think so. Oviedo have kept all their games close with the exception of one knockout from Philly 4 weeks ago. There's a rebuild going on in Oviedo but they're already showing flashes of the team that is to come. Well, with the schedule they have left they'll need a lot more than flashes if they're to build on their record. Dragons and Paris? Yes please, twice each. Then you have the Soneros and Baguettes to consider. The only breathing space being against Los Angeles and Porth Emmett. How many wins? Two. Which two? I suspect the answer may surprise you, but it probably won't be the two you'd expect.
--- Hard time ---
