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Re: Draft and player Volatility

By shauma_llama
3/02/2019 10:16 am
About to go into my fourth draft and was looking at Volatility scores of the rookies thinking how silly it is we, as GMs, get to know this. Would the Chargers have drafted Ryan Leaf if they saw that 100 Volatility score? I read this used to be a hidden stat. It should go back to being a hidden stat, for realisms sake.
Last edited at 3/02/2019 10:16 am

Re: Draft and player Volatility

By MoonPygg
3/02/2019 10:44 am
volatility can go either way. i usually pick low vol guys in first and second rounds if possible and even into the third round at times. although your question isn't totally invalid
Last edited at 3/02/2019 10:44 am

Re: Draft and player Volatility

By Lamba
3/02/2019 11:12 am
As a new guy, I'd be down for making volatility a hidden start, but then I'd want some sort of guarantee that volatility have less impact or that the (projected) higher picks on average have lower volatility, or value of the higher picks will plummet (even more than they are, due to the huge difference in contracts from 1st to 3rd round, while you can often (I'm told) find good starters in 3rd.)

Re: Draft and player Volatility

By shauma_llama
3/02/2019 11:15 am
Lamba wrote:
As a new guy, I'd be down for making volatility a hidden start, but then I'd want some sort of guarantee that volatility have less impact or that the (projected) higher picks on average have lower volatility, or value of the higher picks will plummet (even more than they are, due to the huge difference in contracts from 1st to 3rd round, while you can often (I'm told) find good starters in 3rd.)


IRL teams find starters, even all pros in the mid-rounds. Don't think we'd see all-pro types coming out of the middle-rounds in this simulation.

Re: Draft and player Volatility

By birn
3/02/2019 11:21 am
Don't think we'd see all-pro types coming out of the middle-rounds in this simulation.


No, not often, but if you're lucky one or two will become elite.

https://mfn31.myfootballnow.com/player/9205

I think this is a decent return for someone I drafted as depth.

Re: Draft and player Volatility

By Lamba
3/02/2019 2:47 pm
shauma_llama wrote:
Lamba wrote:
As a new guy, I'd be down for making volatility a hidden start, but then I'd want some sort of guarantee that volatility have less impact or that the (projected) higher picks on average have lower volatility, or value of the higher picks will plummet (even more than they are, due to the huge difference in contracts from 1st to 3rd round, while you can often (I'm told) find good starters in 3rd.)


IRL teams find starters, even all pros in the mid-rounds. Don't think we'd see all-pro types coming out of the middle-rounds in this simulation.

Tbf, I think the draft should be more linear. Not because it's the nature of the league IRL, but because we're players of a computer game that's supposed to both give us the feeling of being owners of a Franchise as well as give us the wonderful sensation of making good decisions.

A stat like volatility, hidden or not, can stifle the sense of accomplishment, when that really good pick turns out to be trash and you're paying him big bucks. So more or less "guaranteeing" (to some extend) that if you spend a 1st rounder, you get someone worthwhile of starting (unless you're stacked), is probably a way to go for a game like this. If it becomes a hidden stat and is as random as now (I had an early round allocation draft pick drop 15 points in future rating), then the 1st and maybe even 2nd round picks will be easily traded away in an attempt to hit home runs with the mid round picks.

Note: I consider anyone with 80+ rating solid starters, the higher above 80 they are, to me, they're some kind of stars for the team. So even with volatility able to "boom" some players, the overall quality should just be higher at the top, so a "bust" 1st rounder and a "boom" 3rd-4th rounder can both end up at say 80. If you draft someone with potential of 90+ and you end up with a 70-75 guy, that's outright demotivational, when you can impact anything else, but that one random stat (if it's hidden).

Re: Draft and player Volatility

By raymattison21
3/02/2019 4:08 pm
Maybe they could make a league with higher and lower levels of volatility . I like it the way it is as I can get better guys later and the value of high volatile pick early costs you .

A real challenge was when it was even tougher to draft . This got scrapped after two drafts in mfn1 test league . The obfuscation of all ratings had people shooting in the dark . You could scout players and get a more accurate possible actualization of ratings but users were just not into it .

I loved that model but it did need another handful of drafts to get the wrinkles out. It drove picks to be very similar to the nfl in terms of where the talent comes from . Which drives parity and so many other nfl functions that make the game fun to me .

Injuries and drafting is already leaning towards an arcade level . 4.5 has nerfed offenses , but I would rather thatnlean towards arcade style than the drafts or injuries . So it would be neat to set some of these levels adjustable in different custom leagues.

I would be all for hiding volatility again but in the past many new users wondered why there guys went down so hard . Here guys either have low and high ceilings or to the other extreme they are as advertised . Still, that doesn't those are final just general rules.

I had 94 vol guys barely go up and 23 vol guys go down significantly cause their primary ratings driving overall just didn't move much in the high vol case and moved alot for the low guy.

Re: Draft and player Volatility

By Lamba
3/02/2019 4:15 pm
I'd be all for converting the "physical" stats into combine stats and then giving a top 3 technical stats (in a range like 80-85), so we had something to shoot for and known volatility (like their personality) to draft after, but not as exact as now. I like random, but you want the chance to make a solid choice in the 1st round or a reason to trade up.

From what I've heard with the people I've talked to in this game so far, there's no real point in trading up for a guy with 90+ future potential, if volatility is above 10. That saddens me a bit.

Re: Draft and player Volatility

By raymattison21
3/02/2019 5:41 pm
Lamba wrote:
I'd be all for converting the "physical" stats into combine stats and then giving a top 3 technical stats (in a range like 80-85), so we had something to shoot for and known volatility (like their personality) to draft after, but not as exact as now. I like random, but you want the chance to make a solid choice in the 1st round or a reason to trade up.

From what I've heard with the people I've talked to in this game so far, there's no real point in trading up for a guy with 90+ future potential, if volatility is above 10. That saddens me a bit.


Financially it is safer but in the end I ask my self it the best potenial player in the draft ?